Wednesday, December 26, 2012

BPL Midseason Review and Second Half Predictions

The end of Matchweek 19 marks the midway point of the 2012-13 Barclays Premier League season, so I thought it prudent to recap what has happened so far and how I see the second half playing out. Here are my quick thoughts on each team in order of where they stand in the table:

1. Manchester United (46 points) - dramatic victories in recent weeks have masked some flaws in the back, but they are still the class of the league. Victory over Man City in December was critical.

2. Manchester City (39) - lost two of last four, including shocker to Sunderland. Hope to be within striking distance of the top of the table when they host Man U on April 6.

3. Chelsea (35 - only played 18 matches) - have won three in a row and seem to be hitting their stride under Rafa Benitez's leadership. Match at Everton this Sunday will be important for Champions League positioning.

4. Tottenham (33) - Gareth Bale is healthy and showing that he is one of the top talents in the BPL, lifting the Spurs to Champions League contention once again. Have lost to Everton and Arsenal already.

5. Everton (33) - Blues are often a second-half team, so an impressive first half has them thinking Champions League for the first time since 2005. A positive result against Chelsea this weekend would really shake things up.

6. West Bromwich Albion (33) - one of the big surprises of this season, the Baggies shook off a three-loss streak with seven points in their last three matches. Will likely get a wake-up call at Man U this weekend.

7. Arsenal (30 - only played 18 matches) - a roller coaster season for the Gunners, who are currently on the upswing with three wins in a row. High goal differential of +14 looks really good at this point relative to other teams they are competing with for Champions League.

8. Stoke City (28) - the Potters are on a nine-match unbeaten streak, utilizing their typical style of conservative play. We'll see how well that works against Man City next week.

9. Swansea City (25) - Michu's 13 goals have led a surprising attack for Swansea, the first Welsh side to play in the BPL. Could see them climbing until a late-season stretch that will have them facing Chelsea and both Manchester clubs in a span of three matches.

10. Liverpool (25) - Anfield natives are restless coming off a dreadful loss to Stoke. Liverpool has to find another offensive threat to partner with superstar goal-scorer (11 on the season) and drama queen diver Luis Suarez.

11. Norwich City (25) - The Canaries have surprised many BPL followers this season by staying mid-table, but their -8 goal differential reveals some concerns that will likely catch up with them unless they can find some offensive firepower before the January transfer window passes.

12. West Ham United (23 - only played 18 matches) - the best of the promoted sides this season, the Hammers have been a solid squad and should have enough to stay out of the relegated zone.

13. Sunderland (22) - biggest win of the season so far came earlier today when they knocked off Man City and got over the 20-point mark with their second win in a row. Steven Fletcher has enjoyed his first season at the Stadium of Light, tallying eight goals.

14. Fulham (21) - the folks at Craven Cottage are nervous, as Fulham's recent form has been horrible (draws with relegation zone QPR and struggling Southampton, as well as being routed by Liverpool). Dimitar Berbatov has cooled off.

15. Newcastle United (20) - one of this year's biggest disappointments, Alan Pardew's crew has not been able to follow up their stellar 2011-12 campaign with anything positive...save Demba Ba's continued scoring punch (11 goals - no one else has more than 3).

16. Aston Villa (18) - the Villains have been thumped by a cumulative score of 12-0 in their last two matches, raising tempers and concerns at Villa Park. Christian Benteke has been impressive in spurts, but they are now a BPL-worst -21 in goal differential.

17. Southampton (16 - only played 18 matches) - the proud fanbase of the Saints were thrilled to rejoin the top flight, but they have struggled a bit. A recent win over Reading could prove to be crucial to remaining out of the relegation zone.

18. Wigan Athletic (15) - winless in their last six, Wigan Athletic must once again get hot in the second half to avoid relegation...something Roberto Martinez has been able to coax out of his boys in recent seasons.

19. Reading (10) - recent form has not been all that bad, with a draw vs Swansea and one-goal loss to Man City, but they have a lot of work to do to move up the table and avoid going back down.

20. Queens Park Rangers (10) - QPR brought in Harry Redknapp a few weeks ago when the team was winless and looking for something to spark the squad. Redknapp has since led the team to a win, and two one-goal losses after that win show improved form...but likely not enough to avoid relegation given their poor start.

And here are my revised predictions for how the table will finish:

1. Manchester United (Champions League berth)
2. Chelsea (Champions League berth)
3. Manchester City (Champions League berth)
4. Everton (Champions League berth)
5. Arsenal (Europa League berth)
6. Tottenham (Europa League berth)
7. Stoke City
8. Swansea City
9. Liverpool
10. West Bromwich Albion
11. West Ham United
12. Norwich City
13. Newcastle United
14. Sunderland
15. Fulham
16. Aston Villa
17. Southampton
18. Wigan Athletic
19. Reading
20. Queens Park Rangers

Saturday, December 1, 2012

MLS Cup Final Preview - David Beckham's Farewell Match

Later this afternoon, the Los Angeles Galaxy and Houston Dynamo battle for the MLS Cup (ESPN at 4:30 pm ET). This is a rematch of last year's final, which the Galaxy won to earn their third title in the 16-year history of the league.


David Beckham hoisting the MLS Championship Trophy after leading the Galaxy to the 2011 title
 Here is my preview of the 2012 MLS Cup Final:

Houston Dynamo
The Dynamo are undoubtedly the underdogs in this match, but don't underestimate their talent on the field or in the coaches box. Brad Davis has been one of the best players in the league in recent seasons, and he racked up eight goals and a dozen assists in 2012. Davis had to sit out last year's final due to a quad injury, so you know he will be motivated to put in a great performance today. Along with David Beckham, Davis is one of the finest set piece threats in the MLS, so today's match could be dictated by which team earns the most set pieces in threatening areas on the pitch. Dominic Kinnear is in his ninth season as head coach of the Dynamo and led them to the MLS title in 2006 and 2007, so he knows what it takes to win a big match.

Los Angeles Galaxy
The Galaxy have been the drama darlings of the MLS in recent months. David Beckham announced he would be leaving the league after this season, so you know the Galaxy will want to send him out on top. Landon Donovan, the most decorated player not only in the history of US National Team Soccer but also the MLS with four championship rings, has openly discussed uncertainty about his future and hinted about retirement so he, too, may be playing his last match in the MLS. While Beckham and Donovan obviously bring a great deal of talent to the Galaxy, you cannot overstate how important Robbie Keane and his 16 goals and nine assists were to their campaign while the two more well-documented stars battled injuries. Like Houston, L.A. is led by an experienced and successful manager in Bruce Arena, who has won three MLS titles as head man.

Prediction
Look for a fired up crowd to help the Galaxy dictate play early. It would not surprise me if that energy cost the home team, however, and led to a mistake that gives the Dynamo an early lead. Even if that happens, I don't see the Galaxy letting this farewell story for Beckham - and possibly Donovan - end on a losing note. Again, set pieces will be a big factor, and it would be all too storybook to see Beckham score the winner off a free kick.
Los Angeles Galaxy 2, Houston Dynamo 1

Thursday, November 1, 2012

Life Without Landon Looking More Likely for USMNT

Landon Donovan has been the face of the USMNT for years. He is the all-time leader in scoring and assists for the national team and has the most appearances in the stars and stripes of any active player. His stoppage time goal against Algeria in the 2010 FIFA World Cup was probably the most important and memorable goal scored by the USMNT, advancing them into the second round and setting off celebrations throughout the world.

In recent weeks, however, Donovan has talked more and more about retiring from the game. Most recently, in an interview with ESPN's Julie Foudy, Donovan said that his body has told him he needed a break over the past year. He went on to say "I don't feel any obligation to play. I don't feel any responsibility to play. I think I've put in a lot into this whole thing. I'm proud of what I've done and what I've been a part of. But I can't fake it."

This lack of passion and commitment to the USMNT is troubling, but in many ways it will help further the handoff of team leadership and identity from Donovan and Carlos Bocanegra - the two mainstays of recent years - to the likes of Clint Dempsey and Tim Howard. Donovan will not be playing in any matches any time soon, if ever again, while Bocanegra's spot in the Starting XI is more and more tenuous after every match. Dempsey and Howard are among the best at their positions in the English Premier League, and both have played key roles in Jurgen Klinsmann's locker room.

2013 will be a big year for the USMNT. The final qualification round - known as the Hex - begins in February/March and the Gold Cup will take place in the summer. Despite the likely absence of Donovan, the US seems to have a lot of depth in the midfield with Michael Bradley, Jermaine Jones, Danny Williams, Brek Shea, and hopefully a healthy Stuart Holden returning to the squad. But Landon Donovan will be missed...from the sounds of his recent interviews, probably a lot more than he will miss his teammates or putting on the red, white, and blue kit.

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

USMNT Wins, Moves on to Final World Cup Qualifying Round!

The US Men's National Team defeated Guatemala last night, 3-1, to win its semifinal round qualifying group and move on to the final round of qualifying, known in this region as the "Hex." The loss knocked Guatemala out of World Cup Qualifying.

The US played its most complete match of the semifinal round at its most critical stage. If you missed the match, watch highlights by clicking here. Despite giving up an early goal and having some issues in the backline, the US dominated possession and took advantage of some great play from Clint Dempsey (2 goals and an assist). Also earning high marks were Herculez Gomez (great effort throughout, and his work earning a corner kick was critical to an early goal), Michael Bradley (dominated the midfield and contributed an assist on one of Dempsey's goals) and Eddie Johnson (assisted on Dempsey's first goal and played well before tiring late).

And now, it is on to the Hex. Here is a lowdown on the format:

Six CONCACAF teams make up the Hex (hence the name): Costa Rica, Honduras, Jamaica, Mexico, Panama, United States. The top three finishers in the round-robin format (one home, one away against each of the teams) qualify for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. The fourth place finisher will play a two-match playoff against the winner from the Oceania region (New Zealand is considered the favorite), with the winner advancing to the World Cup. The teams finishing fifth and sixth in the Hex are out.

Hex matches will begin in March. Until then, the US will play some friendly matches, including one next month against Russia. For now, let's enjoy a deep breath and look forward to the announcement of match dates and locations in the coming days.

Sunday, October 14, 2012

USMNT Gears Up for Final World Cup Semifinal Round Qualifier

Tuesday marks the end of the semifinal round of qualification for the 2014 FIFA World Cup. With one match remaining, the US sits tied atop its group with Guatemala at 10 points. Jamaica has seven points, and Antigua and Barbuda has just one point. The US and Guatemala will play each other in Kansas City on Tuesday knowing a win or draw will get them into the final round of qualifying, known as the Hexagonal. Jamaica takes on A&B and needs a win and for the US-Guatemala match to end in lopsided fashion so they can win the goal differential (the US and Guatemala are both +3 and Jamaica is even). In other words, the US would have to lose and Jamaica would have to win big for our boys not to advance.

The USMNT has had an up and down qualification journey. Friday night saw long-overlooked striker Eddie Johnson score early on a header off a beautiful feed from Graham Zusi, only to see A&B take advantage of a weak left and left-center defense - starting LB Fabian Johnson missed the match with the flu - to tie things up. Only a second goal from Johnson, which came in the 90th minute, salvaged all three points for the US and made things less nerve wracking going into Tuesday's match with Guatemala.

Watch Johnson's game-winning goal here!

For the negative nancies and/or newer US Soccer fans out there who might be concerned, allow me to take you back to the first World Cup cycle of this millennium. The USMNT struggled in the pre-Hexagonal round of qualifying and barely made it to the Hex. They ended up dominating the Hex and went on to make the quarterfinals of the 2002 World Cup.

I have faith the USMNT will do something similar this time around. Klinsmann is working hard to instill his style of play and that has been hindered by significant injuries to many of the squad's stars in recent matches (Donovan and Bradley, in particular). If they can get healthy for the Hex, you have to like the USMNT's chances to finish near the top of the group of six. The top three in that group advance to the World Cup, while the fourth place team will play in a playoff to qualify. The Hex should look like this:

Mexico
United States
Guatemala
Panama
Costa Rica or El Salvador
Canada or Honduras

So, fans of US Soccer, let's cheer on the stars and stripes to victory on Tuesday. A win would help the USMNT grasp onto some positive momentum going into the Hex and once again establish themselves as a favorite to qualify for the 2014 FIFA World Cup.

Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Champions League Group Predictions

The best annual club tournament in the world begins in earnest today, as the Champions League Group Stage kicks off. The Champions League features many of the finest clubs in Europe in a tournament that will run up until the final on May 25, 2013, in London's Wembley Stadium. Last year, Chelsea of the English Premier League upset Bayern Munich of the German Bundesliga in Bayern's home stadium in a thrilling final decided by penalty kicks.

The top two teams in each of the eight groups advance to the Round of 16. Teams will play home and away against each of the squads in their group. Here is how I see the group stage playing out, with teams I predict will advance in BOLD:

Group A: Dynamo Kyiv, Dinamo Zagreb, Porto, Paris Saint Germain
PSG significantly bolstered its roster by adding Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Thiago Silva, and Ezequiel Lavezzi for one main reason: to compete for the Champions League title. PSG should win this group as long as their club chemistry is at a decent level. Porto, champions of Portugal last season will fend off the others for second.

Group B: Schalke, Montpelier, Arsenal, Olympiacos
Arsenal is fortunate to be placed in a relatively weak group, but the Gunners also seem to be improving in the early stages of the EPL season sparked by new signing Santi Cazorla. Tough to figure out a second-place squad here since the others are fairly even on paper, but I will go with Schalke and super striker Klaas Jan Huntelaar.

Group C: Anderlecht, Malaga, Zenit St. Petersburg, AC Milan
Milan is fortunate their group is one of the weakest, as they have been weakened by a budget-forced roster turnover. Gone are many of their stars from last year's quarterfinal run, such as Ibrahimovic and Thiago Silva, but enough talent is on the roster to advance out of this group. Zenit St. Petersburg, last year's Russian champions, put up a tough battle against Benfica in the Round of 16 last year and should get to at least that stage this time around.

Group D: Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax, Real Madrid
The Group of Death could swallow up a Real Madrid team dealing with internal turmoil from manager to star player, but look for them to advance. Man City is too talented from goalkeeper to forwards and everything in between to not move on, though there will be some tense moments.

Group E: Juventus, Shakhtar Donetsk, Nordsjaeland, Chelsea
Last year's CL winners, Chelsea, made some significant changes to their lineup, losing cup-winning goal scorer Didier Drogba but countering with additions of Eden Hazard and Oscar. Juventus, the champions of Italy's Serie A last year, bring back much of the same roster and should be able to hold off the competition for second in the group.

Group F: Valencia, Lille, BATE Borisov, Bayern Munich
Bayern should have no trouble winning this group, given their level of talent and their desire to want another shot at the Champions League title after falling just short last year. Valencia has a solid club and should be able to advance.

Group G: Benfica, Barcelona, Spartak Moskva, Celtic
A very interesting group headlined by Barcelona, which is still the most talented team in the world on paper. Group runner-up will be hotly contested, but I will go with Benfica coming off last year's upset of Manchester United in the group stage.

Group H: CFR Cluj, Manchester United, Galatasaray, Braga
As just mentioned, the Red Devils of ManU were upset in this stage last year by Benfica, so don't look for them to allow another let down with their high level of talent. United is defnitely the class of this group. I will side with Braga as the second team, given their recent league success in Portugal amid tougher competition.

Ok, let's hear it...who you got advancing? Any sleeper picks?

Thursday, September 13, 2012

A Night to Remember as USMNT Beats Jamaica in World Cup Qualifier

It has been 36 hours since the end of the USMNT's victory over Jamaica in the September 11 World Cup Qualifier in Columbus...and I'm just starting to regain my voice! I have never attended a sporting event where the fan base was as loud and passionate, and I've been to some great ones like Ohio State hosting Texas in front of 100,000+ screaming fans at the Horseshoe and the Browns beating the Steelers in front of 70,000+ fans in primetime to knock their arch-rivals out of the playoff race. The enthusiasm I experienced sitting with my fellow American Outlaws was at a different level, especially on the 11th anniversary of 9/11. The patriotic, sold out crowd of nearly 24,000 fans was amazing. Many members of the national media and players shared how pleased they were with the crowd, including US goalkeeper Tim Howard who said:

"It was awesome. This is probably one of the best home-field advantages we have in America. I don’t know what it is about Columbus. Everyone was standing, there were thousands of people with flags. It was really an electric, pro-American atmosphere and that’s such an awesome thing. Hats off to the fans and people in Columbus and that’s not the first time; it’s happened over-and-over. We really feel that pride and home-field advantage and we don’t get that everywhere.” (Quote courtesy of US Soccer)

Most importantly, of course, the USMNT defeated Jamaica in what was a crucial semi-final round qualifying match. Herculez Gomez scored the only goal of the game on a free-kick in the 55th minute that was struck perfectly, curling into the net past the Jamaican goalkeeper. The US outplayed Jamaica throughout the match, except for a few moments near the end when the boys may have been exhausted by the sheer emotion of the night and the visitors played with more desperation to score a tying goal. The US could have been up by a couple goals at halftime, as near misses off the crossbar and post were just a fraction off.

The result of the victory is that the USMNT now lead the semifinal qualifying group on goal differential over Jamaica and Guatemala. The final two matches of this qualifying round are Oct. 12 at Antigua & Barbuda and Oct. 16 Guatemala in Kansas City. Two wins automatically qualify the US for the final qualifying round, called the Hexagonal because there are six teams in that round that each play against each other once on the road and once at home. A win and a tie, and the US will likely be in as well.

Finally, here are some photos I took from the day and night at Crew Stadium that I will never forget:

Tailgating with my boys, Anthony and Dave


Pre-game flag waving




Crowd revving up just before kickoff


Post-game on the field!