Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Champions League Group Predictions

The best annual club tournament in the world begins in earnest today, as the Champions League Group Stage kicks off. The Champions League features many of the finest clubs in Europe in a tournament that will run up until the final on May 25, 2013, in London's Wembley Stadium. Last year, Chelsea of the English Premier League upset Bayern Munich of the German Bundesliga in Bayern's home stadium in a thrilling final decided by penalty kicks.

The top two teams in each of the eight groups advance to the Round of 16. Teams will play home and away against each of the squads in their group. Here is how I see the group stage playing out, with teams I predict will advance in BOLD:

Group A: Dynamo Kyiv, Dinamo Zagreb, Porto, Paris Saint Germain
PSG significantly bolstered its roster by adding Zlatan Ibrahimovic, Thiago Silva, and Ezequiel Lavezzi for one main reason: to compete for the Champions League title. PSG should win this group as long as their club chemistry is at a decent level. Porto, champions of Portugal last season will fend off the others for second.

Group B: Schalke, Montpelier, Arsenal, Olympiacos
Arsenal is fortunate to be placed in a relatively weak group, but the Gunners also seem to be improving in the early stages of the EPL season sparked by new signing Santi Cazorla. Tough to figure out a second-place squad here since the others are fairly even on paper, but I will go with Schalke and super striker Klaas Jan Huntelaar.

Group C: Anderlecht, Malaga, Zenit St. Petersburg, AC Milan
Milan is fortunate their group is one of the weakest, as they have been weakened by a budget-forced roster turnover. Gone are many of their stars from last year's quarterfinal run, such as Ibrahimovic and Thiago Silva, but enough talent is on the roster to advance out of this group. Zenit St. Petersburg, last year's Russian champions, put up a tough battle against Benfica in the Round of 16 last year and should get to at least that stage this time around.

Group D: Manchester City, Borussia Dortmund, Ajax, Real Madrid
The Group of Death could swallow up a Real Madrid team dealing with internal turmoil from manager to star player, but look for them to advance. Man City is too talented from goalkeeper to forwards and everything in between to not move on, though there will be some tense moments.

Group E: Juventus, Shakhtar Donetsk, Nordsjaeland, Chelsea
Last year's CL winners, Chelsea, made some significant changes to their lineup, losing cup-winning goal scorer Didier Drogba but countering with additions of Eden Hazard and Oscar. Juventus, the champions of Italy's Serie A last year, bring back much of the same roster and should be able to hold off the competition for second in the group.

Group F: Valencia, Lille, BATE Borisov, Bayern Munich
Bayern should have no trouble winning this group, given their level of talent and their desire to want another shot at the Champions League title after falling just short last year. Valencia has a solid club and should be able to advance.

Group G: Benfica, Barcelona, Spartak Moskva, Celtic
A very interesting group headlined by Barcelona, which is still the most talented team in the world on paper. Group runner-up will be hotly contested, but I will go with Benfica coming off last year's upset of Manchester United in the group stage.

Group H: CFR Cluj, Manchester United, Galatasaray, Braga
As just mentioned, the Red Devils of ManU were upset in this stage last year by Benfica, so don't look for them to allow another let down with their high level of talent. United is defnitely the class of this group. I will side with Braga as the second team, given their recent league success in Portugal amid tougher competition.

Ok, let's hear it...who you got advancing? Any sleeper picks?

Thursday, September 13, 2012

A Night to Remember as USMNT Beats Jamaica in World Cup Qualifier

It has been 36 hours since the end of the USMNT's victory over Jamaica in the September 11 World Cup Qualifier in Columbus...and I'm just starting to regain my voice! I have never attended a sporting event where the fan base was as loud and passionate, and I've been to some great ones like Ohio State hosting Texas in front of 100,000+ screaming fans at the Horseshoe and the Browns beating the Steelers in front of 70,000+ fans in primetime to knock their arch-rivals out of the playoff race. The enthusiasm I experienced sitting with my fellow American Outlaws was at a different level, especially on the 11th anniversary of 9/11. The patriotic, sold out crowd of nearly 24,000 fans was amazing. Many members of the national media and players shared how pleased they were with the crowd, including US goalkeeper Tim Howard who said:

"It was awesome. This is probably one of the best home-field advantages we have in America. I don’t know what it is about Columbus. Everyone was standing, there were thousands of people with flags. It was really an electric, pro-American atmosphere and that’s such an awesome thing. Hats off to the fans and people in Columbus and that’s not the first time; it’s happened over-and-over. We really feel that pride and home-field advantage and we don’t get that everywhere.” (Quote courtesy of US Soccer)

Most importantly, of course, the USMNT defeated Jamaica in what was a crucial semi-final round qualifying match. Herculez Gomez scored the only goal of the game on a free-kick in the 55th minute that was struck perfectly, curling into the net past the Jamaican goalkeeper. The US outplayed Jamaica throughout the match, except for a few moments near the end when the boys may have been exhausted by the sheer emotion of the night and the visitors played with more desperation to score a tying goal. The US could have been up by a couple goals at halftime, as near misses off the crossbar and post were just a fraction off.

The result of the victory is that the USMNT now lead the semifinal qualifying group on goal differential over Jamaica and Guatemala. The final two matches of this qualifying round are Oct. 12 at Antigua & Barbuda and Oct. 16 Guatemala in Kansas City. Two wins automatically qualify the US for the final qualifying round, called the Hexagonal because there are six teams in that round that each play against each other once on the road and once at home. A win and a tie, and the US will likely be in as well.

Finally, here are some photos I took from the day and night at Crew Stadium that I will never forget:

Tailgating with my boys, Anthony and Dave


Pre-game flag waving




Crowd revving up just before kickoff


Post-game on the field!

Friday, September 7, 2012

USMNT World Cup Qualifier Preview - Jamaica

The USMNT will take on Jamaica twice over the next five days, with the first match in Kingston this evening and the return match in Columbus, Ohio, on Tuesday. These two matches will go a long way in deciding the semifinal round of qualifying for the USA. Here's my take on the three keys for these matches, from the back of the field to the front:

1. Back line needs to start coming together
Fabian Johnson seems to have solidified his spot as one of the outside backers on the national team with his ability to get forward and knack for doing the dirty work necessary in the back. The two veterans of the squad, Captain America Carlos Bocanegra and Steve Cherundolo, will likely keep their outside backer spots as they add stability and presence in front of superstar goalkeeper Tim Howard. That leaves the other centerback position up for grabs, but that should go to Geoff Cameron based on his stellar play against Mexico and his recent big move to Stoke City in the EPL. Cameron could also play in the defensive midfield where he is deployed with Stoke, which would open up a spot for Clarence Goodson (who played extremely well in the win over Italy earlier this year). I would only do this if another one of the defensive midfielders like Beckerman or Jones goes down with an injury. It would be good to see Jurgen Klinsmann having a more stable lineup in the back; a back line of Johnson-Bocanegra-Cameron-Cherundolo should be one to stay with for the foreseeable future.

2. Midfield depth will be tested
I have long claimed that the midfield is where the USMNT is strongest, with the likes of Landon Donovan, Michael Bradley, Jermaine Jones, Maurice Edu, Kyle Beckerman, and Clint Dempsey all playing key roles in recent years in the middle of the pitch. Some of the young players we have raved about before like Brek Shea, who was a key in the win at Mexico, and oft-injured Stuart Holden are looked on as future stars. This depth will be put to the test over the next five days, as Donovan and Bradley will sit out these matches due to injuries, and Dempsey is still getting into form after his transfer to Tottenham in the EPL. Look for Jones, Edu, and Beckerman to play a lot of minutes in these matches. Dempsey will likely be deployed more as a substitute forward in these matches to save the wear and tear on his body while he gets back into top shape.

3. Who will score goals?
When it's all said and done, the US needs at least a win and a tie in these matches to take a commanding lead in their qualifying group, so scoreless draws just won't cut it. Jamaica has some speed and quality on the ball, but their defense is suspect. The US must take advantage of this, and to do so they need Jozy Altidore to display the scoring touch he has shown in recent months in Europe. Other than Dempsey, there has been no American field player in better form than Altidore over the past year. Herculez Gomez has put in some solid efforts recently and will likely start next to Altidore, with Terrence Boyd and Dempsey likely to play substitute roles.

Here is the lineup I hope to see in these matches:
GK - Howard
RB - Johnson
CB - Bocanegra and Cameron
LB - Cherundolo
MF - Beckerman, Edu, Jones, Shea
F - Altidore, Gomez
SUBS - Dempsey on for Gomez; Boyd on for Altidore; Goodson on for Cameron so he can relieve Jones in the midfield when he inevitably gets a yellow card for a hard challenge

Disagree on my lineup suggestions? Who would you start? Who do you want to see step up his game in these two matches?